Edrington – Beam Suntory

Whisky Category Set To Grow To £2.44 Billion by 2022

Inaugural 
Edrington-Beam Suntory UK Whisky Yearbook Forecasts

The whisky category will return to growth over the coming year and, by 2022, will be worth £2.44 billion (up from £2.31 billion in 2018) according to research in the inaugural Edrington-Beam Suntory UK Whisky Yearbook.

The report, designed to be a guide to the trends in the UK whisky market, has been launched by Edrington-Beam Suntory UK to create a comprehensive guide to the key shifts in the category, as well as forecast the underlying trends and their impact.

The research shows that whisky as a whole will grow by £138 million in value in the coming three years – 6% growth over the period – and by over 200,000 cases.

Source: CGA & Nielsen sales data for 2018 and IWSR growth forecasts for 2019 and 2022. Volume of 8.4 litre cases and total whisky value

Mark Riley, Managing Director of Edrington-Beam Suntory UK said: “Whisky is one of the most diverse and dynamic of the spirits categories. Our forecast is that it is also one that will see growth over the next three years. Bartenders and retailers tell us that whisky is a key focus for them, with plans to invest in broadening their knowledge and range, ensuring they can accommodate the increasing appetite for the spirit from consumers in both on and off-trade.

“We would like the Edrington-Beam Suntory UK Whisky Yearbook to become a vital resource to track the changes as they happen and to look at the underlying trends in the category – both as a way to understand the market today and to forecast what is to come – as well as to offer insight into how we navigate the challenges and opportunities presented to us.”

Growth in Scotch single malt and US whisky

The principle drivers of this growth are set to be the Scotch single malt category which Edrington-Beam Suntory UK expects to see grow in value from £394 million in 2018 to £439 million in 2022.

The growth will come as a result of new “accessibly priced” single malts in the market and a closing of the price gap between single malts and blends – encouraging more blends drinkers to “trade up”.

At the same time, existing single malt drinkers are showing strong signs of trading up within the category as they explore limited bottlings and premium releases from the biggest names such as The Macallan and Bowmore amongst others.

Meantime, The Whisky Yearbook research also forecasts that American whiskies will see growth to 2022 – up from £688 million in 2018 to £742 million in 2022.

While there is uncertainty over the current tariffs imposed on US whiskies, the report is optimistic that growth will come from the growing “American premium” brands such as Maker’s Mark, Knob Creek, Bulleit and Woodford Reserve, which are helping to add value to the category.

Mark Riley said: “Our forecast is that Scotch single malt and American whiskies will drive future growth, continuing to attract new consumers to the whisky category and successfully appealing to existing customers with new expressions. Both are seeing customers trade-up as they explore the categories, which is supporting the increase in the value and volume of sales.”

Scotch and US Whiskies Volume Growth to 2022

Source: CGA & Nielsen sales data for 2018 and IWSR growth forecasts for 2019 and 2022. Volume of 8.4 litre cases and total whisky value

Scotch and US Whiskies Value Growth to 2022

Source: CGA & Nielsen sales data for 2018 and IWSR growth forecasts for 2019 and 2022. Volume of 8.4 litre cases and total whisky value

Emergent categories in whisky

Further supporting the overall growth of whisky in the coming years will be the smaller sub-categories where growth will be substantial to 2022, according to Edrington-Beam Suntory UK forecasts.

Irish whiskey will grow by £28.5 million from its sales in 2018 to 2022 and is forecast to be worth £163.9 million. This has been largely driven by the category-leading brand, Jamesons, but the wider easing of supply of Irish whiskey into the UK market will support this growth yet further.

The growth of single grain whisky, meanwhile, has been one of the success stories of the last five years and growth will continue as the value of sales will almost double to £42.1 million in 2022 (from £21.5 million in 2018). As with Irish whiskey, a clear market leader – Haig Club – has led the increase, but there are now further brands joining the category which will increase the pace of growth.

Growth in sales of Japanese whisky will accelerate over the coming three years as there is greater volume available for export, as supply has been the only major barrier to its growth hitherto. The total value of sales will rise to £11.7 million by 2022 marking 44.4% growth. Canadian whisky also will grow to become a £9.0 million category over the next three years.

Mark Riley said: “Irish and single grain whiskies have been real success stories over the past twelve months – sharing rapid growth on an already strong base of both volume and value in the market. We expect both to play a greater role in shaping the wider market in the coming years.

“The supply challenges that have arguably held back growth in Japanese and Canadian whiskies have eased. While there remains a challenge securing enough liquid from leading brands from both nations to satisfy UK demand, there is far greater supply forecast and we predict we will see growth as a result.”

Irish, single grain, Japanese and Canadian Whiskies Volume Growth to 2022 

Source: CGA & Nielsen sales data for 2018 and IWSR growth forecasts for 2019 and 2022. Volume of 8.4 litre cases and total whisky value

Irish, Single Grain, Japanese and Canadian Whiskies Value Growth to 2022

Source: CGA & Nielsen sales data for 2018 and IWSR growth forecasts for 2019 and 2022. Volume of 8.4 litre cases and total whisky value

The Edrington-Beam Suntory UK Whisky Yearbook will be published annually and can be accessed digitally at: www.thewhiskyyearbook.co.uk